Oil companies rolling over into the deep?

Rolfsuey.com concludes: 

Rolf’s Thoughts

If you ask me if oil price has already bottomed out, I seriously don’t know and will not predict! What I know is compare to last year, this is definitely a better time for entry into O&G stocks. Overall, I still think that oil price at $30 or even $40 is seriously not sustainable in the longer term.That said, while oil price directly impact Oil companies’ revenue and have a faster effect to her top and bottom lines, this is not the same for companies further down the supply chain. Even if oil price increases, Oil companies still need time to invest, and it is going to take time before new projects will be seen. This means many companies will see fundamental problems of lack of revenue and thinner margins.The recent rebound of share prices in tandem to oil price is supposedly just market reaction. Market in the short term at most times does not care about the fundamentals. So if you think that just because the Oil and Gas companies’ share prices have rebounded in the last two weeks, the companies are going to report strong figures in coming quarters?  Then I will beg to differ. I suspect, in terms of company performance, the worst have yet to come. Many people I know are still having their jobs intact having to finish the backlog project in 2016 and early 2017. The sentiments are not exactly that bad yet!

My comment in rolfsuey.com:

while the fed has been delaying the rate hike, the 'hot' money has been flowing from one place to another. this is the time for short time plays. I just got out of energy play the week before. didn't earn all of it. but did get some.
and this is what everyone should be doing for the forseeable future, i feel.

At this point in time, it does look as though it has hit near bottom, if not bottom. However, the sentiment has not yet proven to me to have fully turned.

Demand for energy is not increasing at the pace it used, in the US and in People's Republic of China. Another source of demand is needed: India.

As an investor also, the source of supply of crude is extremely crucial as it seems that there has been a changing trend in the supply for big energy consumers:

At the start of the decade, Russia supplied about 7 percent of total imports to China, compared to 20 percent supplied to China by Saudi Arabia. However, Russia has overtaken the Saudis as the largest supplier to China four times in 2015, which is significant because Saudi Arabia had lost the top spot only six times in the preceding five years, according to data from RBC Capital markets.

reuters reports:

Keen to play a bigger part in price creation, China plans to launch Shanghai crude futures. Other exchanges are also looking to capitalize on the change. "China is obviously keen to have an ever greater say in pricing. At the same time, Iran is returning to the market. Firms across Asia are looking at new ways of doing business and legacy arrangements are all under review," DME's Johnson said.

What this means is that we could potentially be at an inflexion point whereby:

1. the classical metrics for oil pricing is losing in significance, 

hence the loss of efficiency in capturing world trends (and an increase in scratching heads at matching fundamentals with prices in energy markets) though this will probably be years in the making.

2. will the glut in traditional supplies find trouble emptying? 

See the super oil tankers rolling in the deep. update: rolfsuey comments on tankers industry

3. the effect of Fed rate, USD value on oil prices and currency markets. 

"You see the relationship as the Fed makes noises about going ahead and raising again in April, that is going to give a boost to the dollar which had been selling off, therefore higher dollar prices drag down oil prices."
The stronger dollar also dampened demand for oil, while a report showing U.S. crude stockpiles soared to record highs for a sixth straight week, and triple what analysts had expected, rekindled worries of a glut and further pressured the commodity.