Showing posts with label singapore. Show all posts
Showing posts with label singapore. Show all posts

Friday, September 30, 2016

Future expected returns on pension funds


when you buy a bond, you get interest, when you short a bond, you owe interest. when you short a bond, if it does nothing for a year, you are not breakeven, you are down by the coupon. - Howard Marks

since 1986, a blend of equities 9.8%, high yield bonds 8.4%, mortgages 6.6%, treasuries 6.2% yield 7.5% which is what pension funds historically hope to make.

I think that currently you would do well with 5.5% - Howard Marks

7% sounds about right for GIC CPF - sauce






Thursday, September 29, 2016

Will Singapore CPF model go down the same path?

granted singapore's cpf model is primarily based on individual savings so there is lesser chance of osmosis of your own savings efforts towards providing for the others who did not save as much.

even so, there is a tyranny of the one size fits all model for CPF resulting in inactive investors leaving their CPF under 2.5% p.a. which in today's world will not retain your prosperity in the global context any further. a comparison of the greying population under the european system (minus the state pension that puts the younger generation under the yoke that provides for the older generations that had spent and spent) with the new rising asian generations rapidly reaching majority middle class, sees the prosperity of the former unretained.

Voting in a populist government will certainly make life easier for a whole generation of Singaporeans to live off the reserves built up previously. But how long and how soon before it becomes yet another enslaving of future generations?


sauce

As the working population ages, more money gets put away, which in turn also helps drive yields lower. Pension funds among countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, for example, have reached a record $25 trillion. 
"There are a lot of very negative feedback loops," Credit Suisse Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam told the audience at the Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit in London this week. "There's been a glut of savings that impact real interest rates. You can't make any money on the assets, and the liabilities explode. People born in 1968 and the following 15 years will have an enormous pension deficit because they've made nothing on their assets."

Jim Leaviss, who helps oversee about $374 billion at M&G Investments in London, argues that the world demographic picture suggests bond yields should be much, much higher than they are. In the past, projecting population changes gave you a good guide to what economic growth would do, how labor-market supply would affect wage demand and inflation, and how demographics would affect production versus consumption of goods and services. 
Those economic indicators in turn told you where bond yields would likely settle. Using that model, Leaviss says the 30-year U.K. gilt yield, for example, should be closer to 12 percent than the 1.4 percent the government currently pays to borrow for three decades, with U.S. Treasuries similarly mispriced:




Saturday, September 24, 2016

Singapore funds invested in India are performing well

when singapore markets are faltering and losing their luster amongst regional markets, it is important for singaporean investors to be more well-rounded.

sauce

Singapore-based hedge funds outperformed Asian rivals during the first seven months of the year thanks to a greater focus on India and global markets, according to data provider Eurekahedge Pte.
Funds headquartered in Singapore returned 2 percent through July, while Hong Kong-based funds declined an average 2.3 percent, Eurekahedge said in a report Tuesday. Funds based in Australia rose 1.9 percent, while Japan-based funds declined 2.5 percent, the report said.

Sunday, August 21, 2016

Free wifi and mobile phone charging points at bus stop in singapore

much love.


from: https://mndsingapore.wordpress.com/2016/08/18/making-public-spaces-fun/

Working closely with various Government agencies, they have now implemented their ideas in a bus-stop along Jurong East Central behind JCube.
This experiential bus stop incorporates several features:
  • Vertical greenery and solar panels
  • Free wifi coverage (available from Sep) and mobile phone charging points
  • Interactive smart boards to access information like bus timings, weather and the street directory
  • Books to browse and read, as well as e-books to download
  • Art panels depicting the evolving landscape of Jurong
  • Bicycle parking
features

Singapore stocks prices are cheap, but

cheap can get cheaper, so we need convincing of us.



The Thai economy was certainly a bit more Boleh in Q2. 2Q16 GDP expanded 3.5% yoy, the strongest since 1Q13 led by increased public sector spending as well as steady contribution frm the hospitality sector to offset the drag from exports and sluggish private consumption. Fingers crossed the Land of Smiles can continue to recover.
Despite sluggish global growth, the region’s macro picture is looking “less bad” according to 2 other countries who reported Q2 GDP growth during the week. Taiwan’s 2Q16 GDP rose 0.7% yoy vs. 1Q16’s -0.3% yoy. It was the first growth since the Q2 2015, and the fastest expansion since Q1 2015 on “less bad” exports.
Over in the Philippines, the economy is on fire. 2Q16 GDP expanded 7.0% yoy, the fastest expansion since the Q3 2013, as a stronger domestic demand (consumption and investment) offset a slowdown in exports.
What about the poor July trade performances of Indonesia, Singapore & China or the stagnant Japanese economy? Total trade fell 15% yoy in Indonesia while Spore’s total trade shrank 11% yoy in July, the worst in 6 mhs for both countries. While this is a reflection of the still sluggish global demand, the shorter working month due to the Hari Raya festivities could be the main reason for the sharp plunge in July trade while China’s data was partly affected by supply disruptions (the severe flooding in July).
What about Japan? On an annualized basis, the economy grew just 0.2% in Q2 as companies cut back on capital spending and exports fell. Spending by businesses was weak & household spending was also lacklustre. But we must also remember that earthquakes in April caused extensive damage and disruptions to production in western Japan, while exporters kena by stronger yen with more expensive Made-In-Japan goods. More pressure on PM Abe & the BoJ to spend and spend to lift domestic demand.
The disappointing Q2 GDP growth in Japan, so-so July US and Asian macro data fuel expectations that there will be more global fiscal stimulus from governments & monetary easing by central banks. Expectations of cheaper liquidity “add oil” to global equities (except in Spore where sadly there’s still minimal interest in our local stocks). In Asia, the interest this week is very much focus on the upcoming trading link between HK & Shenzhen that will give outsiders the chance to trade shares, not of stodgy SOEs (listed in Shanghai), but the smaller start-ups & leading Chinese tech companies.
The only thing we can say for SGX-listed stocks is that many are cheap cheap, and despite the rally, valuations for Spore REITs are not over-stretched. According to a recent report from CIMB Research. S-REITs are trading at mean of 6.3% dividend yield and 1x P/BV. Furthermore, S-REITs are still trading at a 450bp spread vs. the 10-year bond yield, 75bp higher than the average 370bp. Compared to the other key REIT markets, S-REITs is also one of the cheapest. And, Industrials replace the office as their most preferred sub-sector. So Spore REITs still Boleh.
Not so boleh was the US$ during the week. Expectations that the US central bank may hold off raising interest rate in September pushed the US dollar lower this week although it managed to recover some ground on Friday. The dollar index (DXY) ended the week 1.3% weaker (-0.5% last week) and the US 10Y Treasury note ended the week at 1.58% (1.51% the previous Friday). Gold, which usually benefits from a soft dollar and falling bond yields, ended Friday at US$1,341 an ounce, highest in 3 weeks.
Weaker US$ and (misplaced?) hopes that major oil producers can agree to an output freeze next month continued to underpin oil prices for the third consecutive week. Brent crude crossed US$50 for the first time in 5 weeks, to end Friday at US$50.88/bbl.
And speaking of oil, the Norwegian govt reported this week that it had to tap into its massive oil fund (US$890bn, the largest sovereign wealth fund) for spending for the first time in two decades. Given the current trends of low oil prices and low (& lower?) expected rates of returns, there is a big debate in Norway about how much risks this mega fund should take to grow or protect the fund if the govt were to continue dipping into reserves to fund spending. Here in Spore the same question is being asked at GIC/Temasek. It’s a indeed a very stressful time for SWFs, pension funds & long-term investors.
This question & more will certainly be asked at the key event for Week 34 of 2016, a gathering of central bankers, finance ministers, etc. at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA for the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium (Thur/Fri). The theme this yr is ‘Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future’, or in simple Singlish, “What can central banks do ah if global growth and inflation stay low low for long long?” Fed Chair Yellen will cakap on Friday & we’ll wait to see if she will “show hands” (unlikely) on what the Fed may or may not do in its next policy meeting. 
There is no major central bank monetary policy decision this week but there is plenty of Developed Mkt data to test investor confidence. Among the key macro releases: Prelim Aug PMI readings from US, Eurozone & Japan, US Durable Gds Orders, revised Q2 GDP readings from UK & US.
Here in Asia, Taiwan will report July export orders (Mon) and industrial output (Tue). Spore will report July factory output data on Friday & PM Lee is off to Semarang, Indonesia for a 3-day meeting and makan with Pak Jokowi on Wednesday.

comments on Surrendering My AIA Prime Life Policy



comments on http://www.turtleinvestor.net/surrendering-my-aia-prime-life-policy/#comment-166284
the NTUC policy has no cash value. 
"For AIA, I’m paying $73.17 monthly for $50k coverage with some riders on it. In comparison, my NTUC Income policy has $200k TPD/CI coverage at $68.90" 
inaccurate calculation. at $73.17 monthly for 20 years, if you assumed the insurance costs was free, the yoy annual rate is about -0.67% 
"Yah ! for the past 20 teays,, you are just getting half of the return if you just invest in STI ETF ,, IRR just around 3.5 % ,,, with your own control ,, money shall double than that in enxt 20 years !!" 
http://shiohmekiah.blogspot.sg/2016/08/comments-on-assi-whole-life-insurance.htmlhttp://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2014/09/whole-life-insurance-universal-life.htmlkenneth chua's comment is particularly insightful.
kevin's policy IS from 1997. 
"We all know that the benefit illustration 20+yrs ago is flawed and XIRR based on my surrender value is about 2.6%. However, bearing in mind that I was 13 then and my parents are not financially savvy – they just hope to give me some form of savings when I grow up, I can live with it. If XIRR can increase to 3% when I reach the 30th policy year, coupled with the insurance coverage, – I will be contented." 
always a good habit. I do so for mine too. 
"At the halfway mark in 2008 when I started working, I began collecting these annual letters as much as I could, and I can see that the projected surrender value was revised downwards." 
freaking ****!
the plague of one size fits all.
freaking employee fund manager mentality! just protect his own rice bowl! 
"72% in fixed income20% in equities3% in real estate3% in other assets2% in loans" 
looks about right but that 2012 to 2016 is just wrong.
see above comment. 
"Year 1997 : $21,385Year 2008 : $17,544Year 2010 : $15,718Year 2012 : $16,448Year 2016 : $16,449" 
good timing now though if it is 72% fixed income! 
"I was told have to wait to next year, because the value at that point in time can fluctuate according to the underlying fund returns. Oh well."

comments on assi - Whole life insurance, universal life insurance and investing

comments on http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2014/09/whole-life-insurance-universal-life.html
that kenneth chua comment in 2014 is a very perceptive and insider comment.
I made extensive and intensive studies on my own whole life policies so I know that was a very good important comment. and most people won't understand it.

universal life insurance as it is marketed in Singapore, in this environment, is poison.
and ak, his question is not what you think it is.
"I don't think Universal Life Insurance is well known in Singapore and to me, it is just a more flexible form of Whole Life Insurance. "

kenneth chua's comments in 2014:


Kenneth Chua said...
Hi AK,

I chanced upon your blog this year and is impressed by your insights into the various financial topics. (Errh on oats as lunch occasionally yes, but not everyday..its quite filling :)

What works in the past for traditional whole life and endowment policies are not achievable now in the low interest rate environment. Your policy and mine are of different series of the same product (Prime Life). Thus, surrender value differs by about 15K. Life coverage is high with corresponding low premiums in the past. It was a struggle especially in early years paying the premiums for multiple policies. Hence, at age 65, it will be nice to surrender one or two policies at highest surrender value. However, it will be good too to keep these policies for your descendants as a gift.(Properties are a more preferable choice obviously..hehe..).

Current whole life policies offered don't even meet the inflation rate. The worst advice received is to purchase ILPs in order to increase the returns with wrong objective of insurance coverage vs investment returns. Thus, I don't encourage anyone to purchase whole life policies nowsaday.


20 Aug '2016

AK71 said...
From my FB account:

Reader:

Hi AK,

A friend recently suggested getting Universal Life Insurance policy, taking a loan to pay part of the premium & service the interest only of the loan. The benefits highlighted is akin to getting high value Term Insurance coverage but with added benefit of cash value growth (i.e. form of wealth accumulation). Would you have a conversation with yourself on the value/risk of Universal Life policy and the circumstance that it might be suited for?

Thank you in advance 🙂


AK:
I don't think Universal Life Insurance is well known in Singapore and to me, it is just a more flexible form of Whole Life Insurance.

"You have the liberty to reduce or increase your death benefit and also to pay your premiums at any time and in any amount (subject to certain limits) after your first premium payment has been made." INVESTOPEDIA

It is still more costly than term life insurance as it includes elements of savings and investment. So, if you believe in not mixing up insurance and investment, this is not going to fly. 😉

Monday, August 15, 2016

Singaporeans, Worried Over Jobs and Pay, Are the Gloomiest Since 2009

firstly, it was in june?
secondly, singaporeans tend to downplay their optimism.

sauce

Singaporeans are the most pessimistic about the economy in seven years as they’ve grown more gloomy about their quality of life, their income and job security.

Between June and July, survey respondents were asked to give a six-month outlook on the economy, employment, regular income, the stock market and quality of life.

Monday, August 8, 2016

Singaporeans happy among disinflation?

such an academic score applied to a emotional context.
singaporeans are just simply miserable people who grumble all the time. we demand a reassessment!
lol



The Misery Index, computed by adding inflation to the unemployment rate, gives Thailand a score of 1.11 percent, which is the best - or least miserable - for all 74 economies surveyed by Bloomberg. Singapore and Japan are close runner ups, with 1.40 percent and 2.70 percent, respectively. The U.K. ranks the 17th least miserable country while the U.S. takes 21st place. China follows closely in 23rd spot.
Disinflation is a sign that demand for goods and services is insufficient to match supply in an economy, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. global market analyst Satoshi Okagawa says. It encourages consumers to delay purchases until goods become cheaper, further lowering demand. In this deflationary spiral, wages will drop, Okagawa adds.

Saturday, August 6, 2016

New type of mall activities - Pokemon


#PokemonSTAR - Reward, Redeem, Recharge From 6 to 10 August 2016, CapitaLand will be running #PokemonSTAR, a first-of-its-kind O2O campaign that weaves together augmented reality with CapitaLand's physical properties in Singapore as well as its digital and social media platforms. Members of CAPITASTAR, CapitaLand's multi-mall, multi-store cashless rewards programme, will be rewarded with over 2 million STAR$® through #PokemonSTAR, a snap-and-reward Instagram activity that comes with a daily capture component and two bonus stages – the additional #PokemonSTAR of the Day Challenge and the #CatchEmAllAtCapitaLandMalls Grand Bonus.

http://mothership.sg/2016/08/ion-orchard-is-suddenly-a-pokestop-in-spore/

Barely a few hours after Pokémon Go launched in Singapore on Aug. 6, 2016, ION Orchard has become the first PokeStop here.
A PokeStop is a landmark or place of interest where players get to “catch” virtual Pokemon that are attracted by lures released at these locations.
Lures can be purchased by anyone, and in this case, ION Orchard most probably did.
Because from Aug. 6 to 21, ION Orchard will be releasing hundreds of Lures during designated hours as part of Pokemon Go @ ION Orchard, a marketing campaign to draw Pokemon players.

Can I say no to LRIS?

high growth fund at 7.4% p.a. over 30 years?

can I say no to that?

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/cpf-review-6-things-to-know-about-the-new-cpf-lifetime-retirement-investment-scheme


Friday, August 5, 2016

CPFIS investment schemes

https://www.cpf.gov.sg/Members/Schemes/schemes/optimising-my-cpf/cpf-investment-schemes

copied and pasted.

Understand

What is CPF Investment Scheme?

The CPF Investment Scheme (CPFIS) gives you an option to invest your Ordinary Account (OA) and Special Account (SA) savings in a wide range of investments to enhance your retirement nest egg.
If you are not confident of investing on your own, you should leave your money in your CPF account which earns risk-free interest.

Who can invest under CPFIS?

You can invest under CPFIS, if you:
  • are at least 18 years old;
  • are not an undischarged bankrupt;
  • have more than $20,000 in your OA; and/or
  • have more than $40,000 in your SA.

How much CPF savings can I invest?

You can invest your CPF savings under the CPF Investment Scheme – OA (CPFIS-OA) after setting aside $20,000 in your OA. Likewise for CPF Investment Scheme – SA (CPFIS-SA), you will need to set aside $40,000 in your SA.
In addition, you can only invest your OA savings up to 35% and 10% of your investible savings* in stock and gold respectively, also known as the stock and gold limits. You may refer to the example on the computation of the stock and gold limits.
To find out the amount of OA and SA savings you can use for investment, you can:
  1. Login to CPF website using your SingPass to access my cpf Online Services – My Statement; or
  2. Access CPF Tools on your iPhone using your SingPass; or
  3. Visit any CPF Service Centres with your identity card.
*Investible savings refers to the sum of your OA balance and the amount of CPF you have withdrawn for investment and education.

What investment products can I invest in?

You can use your CPF savings to invest in the following investment products:
Investment products included under CPFISYou can invest using your CPF savings fromProduct InformationProduct Providers
OASA
Fixed DepositsYou can approach the fixed deposit banks for more information.
Singapore Government Bonds
Treasury Bills (T-bills)
Statutory Board BondsList of Statutory Board bonds an​d bonds guaranteed by Singapore Government
(Bonds included under CPFIS are indicated by a ‘Y’ under “CPFIS” column)

Bonds Guaranteed by Singapore Government
Unit Trusts (UTs)
Funds that are of higher risk are not included under CPFIS-SA
Investment-linked insurance products
(ILPs)

Insurance products that are of higher risk are not included under CPFIS-SA
Annuities
Endowment policies
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
Up to 35% of investible savings can be invested in:
Shares (Shares, property funds and corporate bonds included under CPFIS are indicated by a ‘Y’ under “CPFIS” column)
Admission Criteria:
Property funds
Corporate Bonds
Up to 10% of investible savings can be invested in Gold:
Gold ETFs
Other Gold products (such as Gold certificates, Gold savings
accounts, Physical Gold)
Agent Banks
(However, if you wish to buy new gold investment, you may approach UOB as only UOB offers this currently)

For fund management companies which offer fund management account services, you may refer to this list of fund management companies (marked with footnote 2 within the document).​

Evaluate

What should I consider before investing?

All investments are subject to risk. Risk refers to the possibility of losing part/all of your investments due to financial market changes.
By understanding the risks associated with the various investment options, you can better decide on investments that best match your risk tolerance and personal circumstances. Here are some factors you should consider:
a.Risk Tolerance — Consider the amount of risk you are comfortable with and can afford to take. Are you able to handle temporary short-term losses in your investments? Do you have enough savings to absorb the investment risks? ​You can take the Risk Tolerance Questionnaire​ to better assess your risk tolerance.
b.Investment Time Horizon — Consider the duration of your investments. Do remember that your CPF savings are meant for your retirement. Hence, they are generally for long term purposes unless you are nearing retirement or have a short-term investment time horizon for other reasons.
c.Overall Financial Situation — Consider your financial commitments and the amount of money required to sustain your lifestyle during retirement. Do you have other assets set aside for retirement besides your CPF savings? How are these assets invested?

In addition, do consider the interest rates you earn on your CPF accounts. When investing your CPF savings, you should do so only if you are confident of earning more than the CPF interest.

Apply

How can I apply to use my CPF savings under CPFIS?

CPFIS-OA
Open a CPF Investment Account with one of the following CPFIS agent banks with your CPF statement if you wish to invest your OA savings:
- DBS Bank Ltd (DBS)
- Overseas-Chinese Banking Corporation Ltd (OCBC)
- United Overseas Bank Ltd (UOB)
CPFIS-SA
There is no need to open any CPF Investment Account if you wish to invest your SA savings.
Thereafter, you can approach the product providers directly to buy or sell your investments.

After reaching 55 years old, how can I apply to withdraw my CPFIS investments?

You can apply to the Board to withdraw your CPFIS-OA and CPFIS-SA investments as well as the cash balance in your Investment Account so long as you have set aside the Full Retirement Sum or the Basic Retirement Sum with sufficient property charge/pledge in the Retirement Account.
Online using my cpf
  1. Login with your SingPass.
  2. Submit an online application via My Requests.
Within one working day from the day of receipt, your application will be processed and your agent bank and/or product providers will be notified.
Mail
  1. Download and fill up Application form for Withdrawal of Investment under CPF Investment Scheme.
  2. Mail it to:
    Central Provident Fund Board
    Investment Schemes Department
    238B Thomson Road
    #08-00 Tower B Novena Square 
    Singapore 307685
Within three working days from the day of receipt, your application will be processed and your agent bank and/or product providers will be notified.
Your agent bank and/or product providers will contact you to get more information in order to transfer your investments to you.

Special Discounted Shares (SDS) Scheme

What is Special Discounted Shares (SDS) Scheme?

The Special Discounted Shares (SDS) Scheme is part of the Government’s asset enhancement programme to make Singapore a share-owning society, thus giving Singaporeans a greater stake in the country.
Singaporean CPF members were able to buy Discounted Singapore Telecom (SingTel) shares in 1993 (ST "A" shares) and 1996 (ST2 shares). Members who held on to their discounted SingTel shares were entitled to loyalty shares.

How to sell or apply for withdrawal of your discounted SingTel (ST) shares?

​You can read more details on the sale and withdrawal of your discounted SingTel (ST) shares.

Saturday, July 23, 2016

some thoughts on state of the economy july 2016


my comments on http://www.rolfsuey.com/2016/07/rolfs-view-of-world-and-singapores.html?showComment=1469282420004#c4607529419692918754


a lot of stress build up. when you see more and more incidents of shootings and vehicular attacks, it means the stress is so tremendous to push people over a threshold.
average citizens in developed markets DM are favouring changes.
brexit occurred and recent polls show once you conduct it anonymous, you have more preferring trump. not so inconceivable anymore.
"Donald Trump as President of US today is no longer a myth compares to a year ago as he has officially accepted the Republican party presidential nomination."
I fear the past 20 years had been an unprecedented confluence of factors favouring Singapore's GDP growth and incomes.
Moving forward, i fear that is about to come to an end.

"Turning the attention to Singapore, the last ten years or so had been an economic fairy tale for Singapore. Don't believe? "
I prefer https://secure.mas.gov.sg/msb-xml/Report.aspx?tableSetID=I&tableID=I.1

yes and attitudes towards immigration has shifted since 2011.
not unlike DM.
and I think the average singaporean is actually overpaid though there are some fundamental communications skills the average singaporean has that is above their global peers in the region.

"To further breakdown in the table below, you can see that the last 15 years growth of foreign labour from year 2000 to 2015 is actually higher than the 30 years period from 1970 to 2000.
Expectations of salary were barely in checked. Almost everyone think that they were underpaid due to the rising median income and of course, the rising cost of living too. Most wanted to assume managerial posts with higher than respectable salary. Yes, even those who had only freshly entered the workforce for a few years were having extremely high expectations.
"


increase in productivity leads counterintuitively to lower employment rates.
and thus lower mean income of the whole population.
leverage of easy money does not lead proportionately to income growth but rather asset prices inflation. Property is one area. Stocks is another.
"In reality, capabilities and work experiences lag behind salary increase. Yes, productivity increased but arguably in my opinion at a much slower rate compare to the eruptive growth of the economy caused by leverage of easy money and the influx of foreign labour. "

and the funny thing is that it CAN end safely but it depends on a lot of factors.
"Hence, the six to seven years of post GFC period had been an astoundingly and unusually successful one. "
I still think it was mainly the liquidity.
"In the main, it was China driving the world economy, constructing new apartments, roads, railways, irrigation, sewage systems, commercial centers etc largely driven by State-owned Enterprise (SOE). And this was of course fuelled by the cascade of debts pouring out from the central bank. In particular, the ballooning shadow banking which is the unregulated credit in nonbank entities within the country has been a specter!  "

this is just the hot money circulating. they will continue to flow around for a while, elevating country after country until CBs (central banks) either reach a conclusion of the NIRP or ZIRP is not working or they restart fiscal policies.
however, volume is dropping and VIX is low and fund managers are reducing their equity allocations so time will tell if they can entice money into the markets further or this is just baseless pricing without demand.
don't forget the stock market is still a market meaning supply and demand and all sorts of crazy bidding.
meanwhile, even while I wonder how long can it last, until the evidence states otherwise, I am staying bullish on us equities.
"
Dow is mid 18,000s today while in 2007 peak, it was only barely hitting 14,000 points. It is the same bull case for Nasdaq peaking at >5,000 points compared to the pre-crisis of 2,800 points.
Markets in Asia and Australia were slightly more modestly priced today due to the worries of China engine running out of steam having more than significant impact to regions here. This is especially after Black Monday in August 2015 when China surprised the world with the devaluation of their yuan.  "
http://www.rolfsuey.com/2016/07/rolfs-view-of-world-and-singapores.html?showComment=1469331891965#c5444657133568964044

helicopter money can successfully bring a country out of the doldrums in a short time for a short time, given their demographics and economy are in place (plugged into the world, growing skilled base - skills not education the way forward).
but it must not be blatant. blatant rapid monetary supply expansion rapidly leads to disillusionment of the monetary standard. ie. hyper inflation and flight to primitive/ancient standards of money.

"CBs still have lots of ammunition to stimulate the market - eg giving every household a cheque to spend! Still sometime before humans run out of solution." 

we are in unchartered terrority.
dow crossing 20k is not by itself something to be alarmed.
http://shiohmekiah.blogspot.com/2016/07/leverage-for-long-run.html
it is the speed of sentiment osmosis and inflection point of sentiments.
every point in history, people can stay alarmed for long periods of time before something changes.
witness 2001-2007 and 2009 to today.

"The stock market is run by perceptions and not reality. If we already can have negative interest rate, Dow crossing 20k will not be jaw dropping! " 

Thursday, June 23, 2016

The Changing purpose of Malls: from Retail to Purpose driven


This is my comment on  http://www.turtleinvestor.net/retail-reits-an-unique-sg-story/

nice one.
the key difference is location and transportation.
catchment areas for malls in singapore and public transportation is very different from other countries and big countries.
hence they can serve multipurpose. i agree with your post.
btw kyith, this is what I meant by "I think there is a case for a entry in REITs when you notice a changing mix in malls."
http://investmentmoats.com/money-management/dividend-investing/buy-crap-reits-investment-properties-fundamentals-bubble/#comment-168211

Indonesians malls have similar catchment areas but damn the public transport and their shopping schedules.
US malls have problematic catchment areas and transport too.
interestingly, amongst the places I visit, I found conditions in Hong Kong and Guangzhou more similar to Singapore.

key points.

  • Tech SavvyMalls will need to remodel to focus more on food-and-beverage outlets, entertainment, services and banking, and less on fashion and consumer products.
    It has already been the case. Only realizing it now? “Late” is an understatement.
  • Closing StoresMarks & Spencer, Zara, New Look, Celio etc.
    Brands like Uniqlo and H&M are doing quite the opposite. Once again, it is a matter of where?
Threat Of Shopping Online
The impact of online shopping cannot be neglected, and the direct impact falls on retailers whose products and services can be easily replicated online. It is not difficult to notice that changing tenant mix of malls in recent years.
Based on my memories, the most adversely impact retailers include those dealing with music and video (remember CD shops? Poh Kim DVD?). The deadly combination of online shopping and high-speed internet literally killed them off. 

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Rent in United States: it's too damn high!

In Brooklyn New York, rent costs 49.9% of your typical household income. 
In Singapore, buying a home (as long as you don't overbuy) costs less than a couple's combined CPF-OA account.



Monday, June 20, 2016

Underwater World closes with 1991 prices: hawker prices lagging




http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/underwater-world-singapore-to-close-on-june-26-with-lease-ending-public-to-enjoy-lower

It will also be lowering ticket prices for all to its 1991 opening price from Tuesday (June 7). Its current ticket prices are $29.90 for adults and $20.90 for children.
When Underwater World opened in May 1991, it was the largest tropical fish oceanarium in Asia. Built at a cost of over $20 million, it was a big draw for tourists and the opening bumped up visitor figures for Sentosa.
Inflation bumped the tickets from S$9 to S$29.90 over the course of 25 years.

Yet, at a lot of hawker stalls, prices didn't go up too much. Stiff competition amongst the hawkers, wide variety of choices and the sacrifice of salary increases for hawkers have helped our generation of Singaporeans to save a lot of time on food preparations and a lot of money on food costs.

Will it last though?

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Singapore against corruption

Hand in hand with catching corruption, the implementation of clear transparent rules and the no-delay in bureaucracy in allowing business to take place are key.

One of the top reasons for allowing corruption by business people, other than getting ahead, is to incentivise speediness in business process.






http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/fight-against-corruption-singapores-experience

The story is told of a businessman who visited Singapore from an Asian country used to different operating norms. He left puzzled and disturbed that he could not discover the going rate for bribes to officers at different levels of government. He concluded wrongly that the prices must be very high.

Singapore has achieved some success eradicating corruption, but we are under no illusions that we have permanently and completely solved the problem. Corruption is driven by human nature and greed. However strict the rules and tight the system, some individuals will sometimes still be tempted to transgress. When they do, we make sure they are caught and severely dealt with. Two years ago, we charged an assistant director from the CPIB itself with misappropriating $1.7 million.


http://blog.moneysmart.sg/opinion/singapores-top-5-corruption-cases-so-far/

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/singapore/corruption-rank


Singapore is the 8 least corrupt nation out of 175 countries, according to the 2015 Corruption Perceptions Index reported by Transparency International. Corruption Rank in Singapore averaged 5.24 from 1995 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 9 in 1997 and a record low of 1 in 2010. Corruption Rank in Singapore is reported by the Transparency International.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

20 years of SGS 10yr bonds - April 2016


almost 20 years of SGS 10yr bonds 

https://secure.sgs.gov.sg/fdanet/BenchmarkPricesAndYields.aspx

May 1998 to May 2016 (Monthly)
END OF
PERIOD
AVERAGE
BUYING RATES
OF GOVT
SECURITIES
DEALERS

10-YEAR
BOND YIELD
AVERAGE
BUYING RATES
OF GOVT
SECURITIES
DEALERS

10-YEAR
BOND PRICE
1998May--
Jun5.30102.50
Jul5.43101.45
Aug5.6999.50
Sep5.25102.85
Oct4.36109.90
Nov4.62107.70
Dec4.48108.75
1999Jan4.35100.20
Feb4.4499.45
Mar4.22101.25
Apr3.98103.15
May4.4699.30
Jun4.5998.35
Jul4.8396.60
Aug4.7597.15
Sep4.5998.35
Oct4.6597.95
Nov4.5498.80
Dec4.5698.65
2000Jan4.4899.25
Feb4.27100.80
Mar4.20101.25
Apr4.17101.50
May4.4899.25
Jun4.6799.65
Jul4.53100.75
Aug4.57100.45
Sep4.45101.36
Oct4.34102.25
Nov4.17103.60
Dec4.09104.18
2001Jan3.69107.37
Feb3.54108.58
Mar3.66107.53
Apr3.62107.80
May3.56108.22
Jun3.6499.86
Jul3.62100.06
Aug3.55100.60
Sep3.41101.80
Oct2.97105.45
Nov3.49101.05
Dec3.9797.28
2002Jan3.9197.76
Feb3.8098.61
Mar3.9897.23
Apr3.9197.83
May3.9397.65
Jun3.7098.38
Jul3.7298.18
Aug3.5199.88
Sep3.31101.61
Oct3.04103.83
Nov2.97104.40
Dec2.55107.95
2003Jan2.44108.88
Feb2.24110.58
Mar2.05112.16
Apr2.10111.62
May1.89113.42
Jun2.2899.69
Jul3.0793.00
Aug3.7287.98
Sep3.5489.46
Oct3.9586.47
Nov4.0385.97
Dec3.7588.10
2004Jan3.3990.84
Feb3.3691.19
Mar3.0793.41
Apr3.2692.03
May3.3191.73
Jun3.6899.53
Jul3.53100.76
Aug3.34102.34
Sep3.29102.79
Oct3.09104.42
Nov2.91105.98
Dec2.58108.72
2005Jan2.94105.63
Feb3.05104.62
Mar3.14103.86
Apr2.87106.08
May2.63108.01
Jun2.62108.03
Jul2.62107.93
Aug2.82106.26
Sep2.85105.96
Oct3.03104.47
Nov3.22103.05
Dec3.21103.06
2006Jan3.35101.97
Feb3.50102.19
Mar3.59101.42
Apr3.51102.03
May3.43102.74
Jun3.57101.49
Jul3.51102.02
Aug3.40102.98
Sep3.20104.64
Oct3.19104.70
Nov3.02106.10
Dec3.05105.85
2007Jan3.18104.69
Feb3.08105.49
Mar2.91106.88
Apr2.68108.80
May2.92106.71
Jun2.86107.15
Jul2.98106.12
Aug2.92106.54
Sep2.70108.27
Oct2.81107.30
Nov2.81107.23
Dec2.68108.26
2008Jan2.21111.94
Feb2.40110.36
Mar2.27111.32
Apr2.44109.83
May3.51104.16
Jun3.59103.49
Jul3.21106.74
Aug3.19106.93
Sep3.21106.69
Oct2.95108.87
Nov2.29114.90
Dec2.05117.03
2009Jan2.07116.66
Feb2.06116.71
Mar2.03116.81
Apr2.04116.58
May2.6199.03
Jun2.5999.20
Jul2.41100.77
Aug2.47100.29
Sep2.45100.42
Oct2.5599.56
Nov2.47100.29
Dec2.6698.70
2010Jan2.5499.70
Feb2.6998.48
Mar2.8397.34
Apr2.6798.62
May2.79104.09
Jun2.37107.87
Jul1.95111.86
Aug1.99111.33
Sep2.02110.96
Oct1.98111.27
Nov2.29108.35
Dec2.71104.54
2011Jan2.57105.70
Feb2.60105.44
Mar2.48106.39
Apr2.41106.98
May2.3998.79
Jun2.3199.46
Jul2.02102.02
Aug1.64105.44
Sep1.62105.64
Oct1.75104.36
Nov1.68104.96
Dec1.63105.42
2012Jan1.54106.17
Feb1.48106.66
Mar1.66105.02
Apr1.55105.91
May1.46106.60
Jun1.61114.17
Jul1.40116.17
Aug1.38116.23
Sep1.47115.25
Oct1.34116.42
Nov1.30116.62
Dec1.30116.56
2013Jan1.42115.20
Feb1.52114.17
Mar1.54113.84
Apr1.37115.30
May1.81111.19
Jun2.51102.11
Jul2.47102.42
Aug2.67100.66
Sep2.35103.44
Oct2.15105.17
Nov2.40103.02
Dec2.56101.61
2014Jan2.46102.40
Feb2.46102.40
Mar2.49102.10
Apr2.42102.69
May2.24104.21
Jun2.32103.47
Jul2.46104.82
Aug2.27106.49
Sep2.47104.60
Oct2.29106.21
Nov2.19107.07
Dec2.28106.21
2015Jan1.88109.78
Feb2.23106.52
Mar2.27106.12
Apr2.25106.32
May2.4299.62
Jun2.6997.25
Jul2.6397.77
Aug2.8596.00
Sep2.5498.61
Oct2.4699.27
Nov2.5198.85
Dec2.6098.15
2016Jan2.26100.97
Feb2.28100.82
Mar1.84104.51
Apr2.00103.12
  • Data reflects bid rates quoted by SGS Primary Dealers to each other based on standard market lot transactions as specified in the Rules and Market Practices of the SGS Market. Prices quoted to non-Primary Dealers may be different, subject to factors such as transaction size and administrative costs.
  • Figures before 2000 are the modes of closing bid prices quoted by SGS primary dealers.
  • Figures after 2000 are the average of closing bid rates quoted by SGS primary dealers.
  • Overnight repo rates are closing offer rates quoted by SGS primary dealers.
  • The 7-year benchmark was discontinued on 1 February 2011.
  • The final 3-month T-bill was issued on 20th June 2013.
  • The final 6-month T-bill was issued on 27th December 2013.
  • The SGS Overnight Repo rate was discontinued on 1 January 2014.
  • Yield is quoted as % p.a.
  • Bond price is quoted in S$ per S$100 of principal amount, excluding any applicable accrued interest (i.e. on clean basis).